Social Security Expected to Run Short on Funds in 2035

The trust funds the Social Security Administration relies on to pay benefits are now projected to run out in 2035, one year later than previously projected, according to the annual trustees’ report released Monday.

On the projected depletion date, 83% of benefits will be payable if Congress does not act sooner to prevent that shortfall.

The Social Security trustees credited the slightly improved outlook to more people contributing to the program amid a strong economy, low unemployment and higher job and wage growth. Last year, the trustees projected the program’s funds would last through 2034, when 80% of benefits would be payable.

Social Security’s new 2035 depletion date applies to its combined trust funds.

The trust funds help pay for benefits when more money is needed beyond what is coming in through payroll taxes. Currently, 6.2% of workers’ pay is taxed for Social Security, while an additional 1.45% is taxed for Medicare. The total 7.65% is typically matched by employers. High earners may have an additional 0.9% withheld for Medicare.

While the combined depletion date for Social Security’s trust funds is typically used to gauge the program’s solvency, the funds cannot actually be combined based on current law.

Social Security’s two trust funds have distinct projected depletion dates.

The fund used to pay retired workers, their spouses and children, and survivors — formally known as the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund — is projected to last until 2033, which is unchanged from last year. At that time, 79% of those scheduled benefits may be payable.

The fund used to pay disability benefits — known as the Disability Insurance Trust Fund — will be able to pay full benefits until at least 2098, the last year of the projection period.

Federal Government to Provides States Access to Improved Data Sources, Services to Strengthen UI Program Integrity

Last Thursday, the United States . Departments of Labor and Treasury today announced a new data-sharing partnership, the latest effort to support a multi-layered approach to fraud prevention by providing states with controls, tools and strategies to identify and combat unemployment insurance fraud.

The data-sharing partnership provides state unemployment agencies with access to Do Not Pay Working System data sources and services through the UI Integrity Data Hub. Maintained by the National Association of State Workforce Agencies’ UI Integrity Center, the hub is a centralized, multistate data-matching system used by state unemployment agencies to aid fraud prevention and improper payment reduction efforts.

Administered by the Office of Management and Budget and operated by Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service’s Office of Payment Integrity, the Do Not Pay Working System provides a no-cost service for federal agencies and federally funded state-administered programs to verify claim eligibility and prevent fraud and improper payments.

The department’s Employment and Training Administration oversees the nation’s unemployment insurance system through federal-state partnerships. Providing state agencies with access to additional payment integrity data sources is one of ETA’s key antifraud strategies.

“To mitigate fraud risks and reduce improper payments, state unemployment agencies need access to the best controls,” explained Assistant Secretary for Employment and Training José Javier Rodríguez. “This partnership will allow states to access critical Do Not Pay data sources, which means they will be able to use existing infrastructure like the UI Integrity Data Hub more effectively to ensure the accuracy of unemployment payments.”

UI agencies in all 53 states and territories participate in the UI Integrity Data Hub. The Department of Labor oversees the UI Integrity Center’s operations and activities, including the management and maintenance of the UI Integrity Data Hub, and recently invested American Rescue Plan funding to support the integration of this new data source.

Federal Appeals Court Allows Cardinal-Hickory Creek Transmission Line Project to Move Forward

A federal appeals court this week lifted a court order that would have temporarily blocked the final phase of a controversial transmission project.

In March, U.S. District Court Judge William Conley granted a request by conservation groups to temporarily block a proposed land swap. That order prevented the Cardinal Hickory Creek transmission project from crossing through a Mississippi River wildlife refuge.

The utilities behind the project appealed that decision in the U.S. Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals.

On Thursday, a three-judge panel on the Chicago appeals court said the injunction blocking the land swap was not justified.

The appeals court said Conley needed to show that the National Wildlife Refuge Association, Driftless Area Land Conservancy and Wisconsin Wildlife Federation were likely to succeed in their lawsuit challenging the project. The court said he failed to do so.

“Instead the district court expressed concern that private parties might begin to build a transmission line before the court could address the merits,” the appeals court wrote.

The Cardinal-Hickory Creek transmission line runs more than 100 miles from Dane County to Dubuque County in Iowa. The first half of the project came online in December 2023.

ITC Midwest and Dairyland Power Cooperative, the co-owners of the Cardinal Hickory Creek line, said in a statement they were pleased with the appeals court’s decision.

They said the district court has stalled the line’s completion by blocking the utilities from exchanging land with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. They said the land exchange was needed to finish a 1.1 mile segment near the Upper Mississippi River National Wildlife and Fish Refuge.

“The key effect of the appeals court order is that the government and utilities are now free to complete the land exchange,” the utilities said in a statement.

IRS Targets Sharply Higher Audit Rates on Big Firms, Partnerships, Millionaires

The Internal Revenue Service said on Thursday that it plans to sharply increase audit rates for big corporations, partnerships, and multimillionaires over the next three years as it ramps up enforcement spending and hiring to boost collections.

Releasing an update of its strategic operating plan, for spending $60 billion in funding from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, the IRS said it was targeting a near tripling of the audit rate on corporations with assets over $250 million to 22.6% in the 2026 tax year from 8.8% in 2019.

For complex partnerships with assets over $10 million the IRS said it intends to increase audit rates by nearly 10-fold, to 1% in tax year 2026 from 0.1% in 2019. The IRS also said it is targeting a 50% increase in audit rates for individuals with total positive annual income of over $10 million, to 16.5% in the 2026 tax year from 11% in 2019.

At the same time, the IRS emphasized that it would not increase audit rates on individuals and small businesses earning under $400,000, in keeping with President Joe Biden’s pledge not to increase taxes on that population.

The IRS said it intends to spend $7.25 billion of the Inflation Reduction Act funds in fiscal 2024, up from $3.4 billion in fiscal 2023. The agency’s initial strategic operating plan called for fiscal 2024 spending at $5.8 billion.

The IRS plans to spend $9.3 billion in fiscal 2025, $7.3 billion in fiscal 2026 and a total of $57.82 billion over the decade though fiscal 2031, according to the document.

The IRS said it hired 13,661 people in fiscal 2023 using the Inflation Reduction Act funds, including 10,518 taxpayer services staff and 495 enforcement staff. It plans to increase these hires to 16,314 in fiscal 2024, including 4,088 enforcement staff.

The report showed that the hiring would support a total IRS workforce of about 93,000, by 2028, up from 88,411 estimated for fiscal 2024. That would be somewhat short of Werfel’s goal for an IRS workforce of over 100,000 within the next three years.

Federal Reserve Leaves Benchmark Rates Unchanged, Flags ‘Lack of Further Progress’ on Inflation

The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday and signaled it is still leaning towards eventual reductions in borrowing costs, but put a red flag on recent disappointing inflation readings that could make those rate cuts a while in coming.

Indeed, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that after starting 2024 with three months of faster-than-expected price increases, it “will take longer than previously expected” for policymakers to become comfortable that inflation will resume the decline towards 2% that had cheered them through much of last year.

That steady progress has stalled for now, and while Powell said rate increases remained unlikely, he set the stage for a potentially extended hold of the benchmark policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range that has been in place since July.

U.S. central bankers still believe the current policy rate is putting enough pressure on economic activity to bring inflation under control, Powell said, and they would be content to wait as long as needed for that to become apparent – even if inflation is simply “moving sideways” in the meantime.

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure – the personal consumption expenditures price index – increased at a 2.7% annual rate in March, an acceleration from the prior month.

“Inflation is still too high,” Powell said in a press conference after the end of the Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day policy meeting. “Further progress in bringing it down is not assured and the path forward is uncertain.”

 

Court Overturns PSC decision that Allows Leasing of Solar Energy Systems

Last week, a Dane County court overturned a 2022 decision by the Public Service Commission that would have allowed family in Stevens Point to use third-party financing to install solar on their home.

Under that agreement, the family would lease the system from North Wind Renewable Energy Cooperative. Similar lease agreements are common in other states, but utilities have opposed their use in Wisconsin, saying they are not allowed under existing state law.

The family in Stevens Point sold their home and did not move forward with the project, according to North Wind Founder Josh Stolzenburg.

Even so, the Wisconsin Utilities Association last year challenged the PSC’s decision in Dane County Circuit Court.

Last Friday, the court sided with the utility association, sending the issue back to the Public Service Commission. The court said the PSC incorrectly interpreted what constitutes a “public utility” in its decision because it focused on the singular project and not North Wind’s activities as a whole.

State law defines a “public utility” as any entity owns, operates, manages or controls equipment used for the “transmission, delivery or furnishing of heat, light, water or power either directly or indirectly, to or for the public.”

Utilities are largely opposed to third-party financing for solar installations, saying it violates state law by allowing installers to act as a utility without being regulated as one.

“We’re pleased with the decision of the court affirming our position that if you provide energy to the public, either directly or indirectly, you must be regulated as a public utility,” Bill Skewes, executive director for the Wisconsin Utilities Association, said in an email.

Worker Pay Rose More Than Expected in First Quarter of 2024

Employee compensation costs jumped more than expected to start the year, providing another danger sign about persistent inflation. The employment cost index, which measures worker salaries and benefits, gained 1.2% in the first quarter, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

On a year-over-year basis, compensation costs for civilian workers increased 4.2%, still above a level the Fed feels is consistent with its 2% inflation goal, though down from 4.8% a year ago. Wages and salaries rose 4.4% while benefits costs increased 3.7%.

State and local government workers saw their compensation costs rise 4.8%, down just narrowly from the same period in 2023. The bigger increase likely was attributable to the high level of that group belonging to unions, which saw compensation costs increase 5.3%, compared to just a 3.9% gain for nonunion workers.

The Fed watches the ECI as a significant measure of underlying inflation pressures.

The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting Tuesday. Markets have priced in virtually no chance that the FOMC will change the target for its overnight borrowing rate from the current range of 5.25%-5.5%.

UW System to Vacate Richland Campus

The Universities of Wisconsin will vacate a former two-year college in Richland County this summer, despite months of discussions with local officials who once hoped to save the former two-year college. County leaders say they’re now facing a potential “economic crisis.”

Classes at the campus known by locals as UW-Richland ended in July 2023 after enrollment fell to around 60 students. Initially, UW administrators stopped short of saying the campus would close, holding several meetings with county leaders with a goal of redefining the former college.

One of the questions during those discussions was what to do about a 75-year memorandum of agreement that outlines the county’s role in maintaining the county-owned campus buildings and property in exchange for the UW branch campus “to provide an adequate instructional and administrative staff.” That lease is not set to expire until 2042.

Over the past year, some Richland County board members have argued the UW should have to reimburse the county for maintenance costs and lost economic opportunities caused by the closing. The loss estimates ranged from $1.5 million to tens of millions of dollars.

On Tuesday, county officials received a letter from Universities of Wisconsin Vice President for University Relations Jeff Buhrandt, notifying them that UW-Platteville, which oversees the Richland campus, “will completely vacate the Richland County Campus by July 1.”

“While we are disappointed that we were unable to find a path forward, we also know this change can provide significant new opportunities in Richland County,” Buhrandt said.

The letter also notified the county that recent legislation offering $2 million grants to counties where branch campuses are closed was the state’s final offer.

“This potential investment by the State of Wisconsin represents the full consideration of the costs expressed by Richland County,” Buhrandt wrote.

GDP Growth Slowed to a 1.6% Rate in the First Quarter of 2024

U.S. economic growth was much weaker than expected to start the year, and prices rose at a faster pace, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced in the January-through-March period, increased at a 1.6% annualized pace when adjusted for seasonality and inflation, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Consumer spending increased 2.5% in the period, down from a 3.3% gain in the fourth quarter. Fixed investment and government spending at the state and local level helped keep GDP positive on the quarter, while a decline in private inventory investment and an increase in imports subtracted. Net exports subtracted 0.86 percentage points from the growth rate while consumer spending contributed 1.68 percentage points.

Spending patterns also shifted in the quarter. Spending on goods declined 0.4%, in large part to a 1.2% slide in bigger-ticket purchases for long-lasting items classified as durable goods. Services spending increased 4%, its highest quarterly level since the third quarter of 2021.

 

 

New Biden Administration Rule would make 4 Million White-Collar Workers Eligible for Overtime Pay

The Biden administration on Tuesday announced a new rule that would make millions of white-collar workers newly eligible for overtime pay.

Starting July 1, the rule would increase the threshold at which executive, administrative and professional employees are exempt from overtime pay to $43,888 from the current $35,568. That change would make an additional 1 million workers eligible to receive time-and-a-half wages for each hour they put in beyond a 40-hour week.

On January 1, the threshold would rise further to $58,656, covering another 3 million workers.

While hourly workers are generally entitled to overtime pay, salaried workers are not if they earn above a certain pay level and supervise other workers, use professional expertise or judgment or hire and fire workers, among other duties.

The new standard could be legally challenged by industry groups that have argued that excessively raising the standard exceeds Labor’s authority and adds heavy regulatory and financial burdens or compliance costs.

Some companies could lift workers’ base pay to the new threshold to avoid paying overtime or convert salaried workers to hourly employees who need to punch a clock. Others could instruct salaried employees to work no more than 40 hours a week, bringing on part-time workers to pick up the slack. Still others may reduce employees’ base pay to offset the overtime, effectively sidestepping the new requirement.