News of the Day

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor indicated that retail sales still grew in November even though two days of the Thanksgiving holiday fell in December.

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.15% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.35% unadjusted year over year in November, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.74% month over month and 4.13% year over year in October.

“November sales increased on top of a strong October and would have been even higher if Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday hadn’t fallen in December,” stated National Retail Federation CEO Matthew Shay. “Year-over-year gains were solid even as retail prices in many categories are lower this year, showing that consumers are buying more merchandise as the economy continues to grow,” he added. Notably, the NRF said it remains confident in its holiday forecast.

The online and other non-store sales category was strong in November, up 1.32% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 21.48% year over year unadjusted. Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.95% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 5.31% year over year unadjusted. Meanwhile, electronics and appliance stores were down 2.19% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 7.28% year over year unadjusted. The sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores category also disappointed, were down 1.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 7.39% year over year unadjusted.

Total sales were up 2.15% year over year for the first 11 months of 2024 and core sales were up 2.33%.

The Worker’s Compensation Advisory Council (WCAC) is seeking public comments on its next slate of recommended legislative changes.

The Council will host a hybrid public hearing Tuesday, Dec. 10, from 3 to 6 p.m. The hearing will be held in person at 201 East Washington Avenue, Madison, Wisconsin, and virtually via WebEx conferencing technology. Written comments will also be accepted through January 10, 2025.

The WCAC was established in 1968 to advise DWD and propose amendments to the state’s worker’s compensation laws each legislative session. The most recent council-supported agreed-upon bill that cleared both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature was signed into law by Governor Tony Evers on March 22, 2024.

Submit Written Comments: Written comments may be submitted to John Dipko, Chair, Worker’s Compensation Advisory Council, 201 East Washington Avenue, Room C100, Madison, WI 53703, or via email to: WCAdvisoryCouncil@dwd.wisconsin.gov. The submission deadline for written comments is Jan. 10, 2025.

Attend the Public Hearing

TIME: 3 p.m. to 6 p.m.
DATE: Dec. 10, 2024
LOCATION: 201 E. Washington Ave., Madison, Conference Room H103
ATTEND VIRTUALLY: Register via WebEx from the state Public Meeting Notices website. Attendees must register in advance.

On December 3, 2024, the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas issued a preliminary injunction prohibiting the federal government from enforcing the Corporate Transparency Act (the “CTA”) nationwide (Texas Top Cop Shop, Inc., et al. v. Garland, et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-478 (E.D. Tex.)). The order specifically finds that “reporting companies need not comply with the CTA’s January 1, 2025, beneficial ownership reporting deadline.”

The CTA and its implementing regulations, which went into effect January 1, 2024, would require U.S. “reporting companies” to disclose beneficial ownership information to the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network by January 1, 2025.

The court issued the preliminary injunction after determining that the CTA and its implementing regulations were “likely unconstitutional as outside of Congress’s power” under the Commerce Clause as Congress does not have the power to compel disclosure of corporate ownership information for law enforcement purposes. Judge Mazzant noted that simply because a company exists does not give Congress unlimited power to regulate it, particularly since the CTA does not directly regulate commerce, stating, “The fact that a company is a company does not knight Congress with some supreme power to regulate them in all aspects—especially through the CTA.”

It is important to note that the court’s injunction is preliminary and not a final decision. While the long-term future of the CTA is unknown and the court’s decision may be appealed, the immediate impact is that the CTA’s upcoming January 1, 2025 compliance and filing deadlines have been paused.

Wisconsin Senate leaders have chosen eight lawmakers who will serve on the Legislature’s Joint Finance Committee — a simple bureaucratic move with major implications.

The 16-person committee, which meets in its very own conference room in the east wing of the state Capitol, reviews and controls how state government spends its money.

When budget season launches in early 2025, the finance committee will take the governor’s proposal and rework it, giving the panel considerable power when it comes to spending billions of dollars and dictating Wisconsin’s financial priorities for two years.

On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, R-Oostburg, announced his six picks for the committee, and Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein, D-Middleton, announced her two picks.

The other eight members will be appointed from the Assembly, where Republican Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, and Democratic Minority Leader Greta Neubauer, D-Racine, have yet to announce their picks.

Among the Republican members of the committee are returning co-chair, Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green; Sen. Eric Wimberger, R-Green Bay; and Sen. Patrick Testin, R-Stevens Point.

Sen. Romaine Quinn, R-Cameron; Sen. Julian Bradley, R-New Berlin; and Sen. Rob Stafsholt, R-New Richmond, will be serving on the powerful group for the first time.

“I’m confident the new Senate finance team will responsibly utilize our state’s $4 billion surplus to shrink the size of government and reduce the tax burden on hardworking Wisconsin families,” LeMahieu said in a statement.

For Democrats, Sen. LaTonya Johnson, D-Milwaukee, and Sen. Kelda Roys, D-Madison, were both reappointed.

On Tuesday, Governor Evers requested to present his budget proposal — which will be one of his largest public addresses for the year — on either February 25 of March 4 of next year. Republican leadership will have to approve his request. That will kick off several months of discussion in the budget committee’s conference room to decide what Wisconsin will invest in through 2027.

House Republicans will enter the 119th Congress with a razor-thin majority after an election that saw Democrats score a net gain of one seat.

The final race to be decided — nearly one month after Election Day — was in California’s 13th District, where Democrat Adam Gray ousted Republican incumbent John Duarte.

That means Republicans won a total of 220 House seats this year, while Democrats won 215.

House Republicans are expected to start the new Congress on January 3 already down by at least one seat. That’s because their final tally includes the Florida seat won by Republican Matt Gaetz, who resigned from the House in November.

The GOP margins are expected to shrink even further in the session’s early months when another Florida Republican, Rep. Michael Waltz, resigns to serve as Trump’s national security adviser — a White House role that doesn’t require Senate confirmation. Waltz is expected to step down on or around Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.

The timing of outgoing House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik’s departure is slightly less clear, though it’s likely that the New York lawmaker will win fast approval from the Republican-led Senate to become U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in the next administration.

The special elections for Gaetz’s and Waltz’s seats are slated for April 1, according to the Florida secretary of State’s office, with primaries on January 28. And once Stefanik resigns, New York law gives Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul a 10-day window to call the special election, which would need to be set for between 70 and 80 days after that.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu are vowing to appeal a Dane County judge’s ruling that restored collective bargaining powers for public employees who lost them under Act 10 more than 13 years ago.

Judge Jacob Frost this summer found parts of the law unconstitutional because it treated some public safety employees, such as municipal police officers, differently from others in law enforcement, such as wardens working for the Department of Natural Resources.

Following that ruling, GOP lawmakers had asked Frost to only strike down the definition of public safety employees but otherwise leave the law largely intact. But he rejected that in Monday’s decision.

The 2011 law  barred state general employees from negotiating for anything other than base wage increases that were capped by changes in the consumer price index.

Frost struck down that measure along with two other key components of the law:

• Requiring 51% of all members in a bargaining unit to certify the union while allowing a simple majority of those who voted to certify for those who fell under the public safety employee definition.
• Allowing union dues to be deducted from the paychecks of public safety employees, but barring the practice for others.

In all, Frost struck down 87 provisions from Act 10 and another three from a 2015 law that modified the original statute.

Public employee unions and workers who were part of the suit challenging the law hailed the ruling. They also noted it is likely the case will be tied up in the courts “for some time” with expected appeals.

The American economy expanded at a healthy 2.8% annual pace from July through September on strong consumer spending and a surge in exports, the government said Wednesday, leaving unchanged its initial estimate of third-quarter growth.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, accelerated to a 3.5% annual pace last quarter, up from 2.8% in the April-June period and fastest growth since the fourth quarter of 2023. Exports also contributed to the third quarter’s growth, increasing at a 7.5% rate, most in two years.

But growth in business investment slowed sharply on a drop in investment in housing and in nonresidential buildings such as offices and warehouses. By contrast, spending on equipment surged.

Wednesday’s report also contained some encouraging news on inflation. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge — called the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE — rose at just a 1.5% annual pace last quarter, down from 2.5% in the second quarter. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core PCE inflation was 2.1%, down from 2.8% in the April-June quarter.

The head of Forward Analytics says limited housing availability and the high cost of child care are top affordability challenges as lawmakers gear up for the next legislative session.

Economist and researcher Dale Knapp discussed these and other topics during a recent Newsmakers interview on WisconsinEye, focused on potential areas of legislative action in the coming years. Forward Analytics is the research-focused division of the Wisconsin Counties Association.

Knapp touched on the possibility of state policymakers leveraging the surplus for tax relief, noting property tax reductions “might have the biggest chance” to get bipartisan support.

“A tax cut can provide a little bit of money in people’s pockets, so that could help,” he said, adding “the bigger issues in terms of household finance, I think of the cost of child care, I think of the cost of buying a house, those kinds of things that the state can help address to some degree.”

For a family with two children, the cost of obtaining child care can exceed one-third of annual income, Knapp noted. He added the market for these services is largely young couples who are just getting started in their career and often don’t have much money. But at the same time, child care workers are “some of the lowest paid workers” in the state.

“So it’s this real challenge, that I think is a case of the private market, in and of itself, can’t solve this,” he said. “A lot of times, we want the market to solve this, but I think this is one case where in some form, the public sector has to come in and help to some degree.”

Knapp said one solution, though likely an unpopular one, would be for the state’s K-12 school system to take over child care.

“That would be the extreme of an almost total government takeover, and I don’t think that works. But I think in some ways, there has to be a funding stream for this that comes from the public sector,” he said, adding the child care challenge could be contributing to a decline in labor force participation among women aged 30-45 in Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, Knapp said “I think there’s a good chance we’ll see more” legislative efforts to improve housing availability in the state. He’s previously said the state needs to build between 130,000 and 200,000 more housing units this decade alone, while also making housing more affordable.

President-elect Donald Trump on Monday pledged big tariffs on the United States’ three largest trading partners – Canada, Mexico and China.

Trump, who takes office on January 20, said he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamped down on drugs, particularly fentanyl, and migrants crossing the border.

Trump separately outlined “an additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs” on imports from China. It was not entirely clear what this would mean for China as he has previously pledged to end China’s most-favored-nation trading status and slap tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% – much higher than those imposed during his first term.

“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders,” Trump said.

The United States accounted for more than 83% of exports from Mexico in 2023 and 75% of Canadian exports.

After a dip in September, Wisconsin home sales rebounded slightly last month. But despite an increase in new listings, inventory remains tight and the median price grew to $310,000.

The Wisconsin Realtors Association’s October report shows existing home sales rose by 3.5 percent compared to the same time last year. Still, demand continued to outpace supply, especially in metropolitan counties. That pushed the median home price up by nearly 11 percent compared to the same 12-month period ending last October.

Dave Clark is a Marquette University emeritus professor of economics. He told WPR that the only price range close to a six-month inventory, which realtors consider a balanced market, is for homes selling at $500,000 or more.

For homes selling at or below $200,000, which is considered entry level, Clark said there’s just more than three months of supply.

“It’s especially challenging for first time buyers, because they tend to be buying at those entry level price ranges and the supply is tightest there,” Clark said.

The association reported mortgage rates increased by a quarter percent in October for a state average of 6.43 percent. Clark said that’s also affecting sellers, who likely refinanced at historically low interest rates at the end of 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.