News of the Day

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, about 100,000 b/d less than in 2025.

This forecast decline in production follows four years of rising crude oil output.

Production increased by 0.3 million b/d in 2024 and by 0.4 million b/d in 2025, mostly because of increased output in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico.

In 2026, we forecast modest production increases in Alaska, the Federal Gulf of America, and the Permian will be offset by declines in other parts of the United States.

We forecast that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price will average $65 per barrel (b) in 2025 and $51/b in 2026, both lower than the 2024 average of $77/b.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday issuing a single regulation framework for artificial intelligence, undermining the power of individual states.

“To win, United States AI companies must be free to innovate without cumbersome regulation,” the Order says. “But excessive State regulation thwarts this imperative.”

The President’s executive order also calls for the attorney general to establish an AI Litigation Task Force, “whose sole responsibility shall be to challenge State AI laws.”

States that don’t adhere to the rules could face funding restrictions. The order says that within 90 days of its signing, the secretary of commerce must specify the conditions under which states may be eligible to receive remaining funding under the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment, or BEAD, program, a $42.5 billion effort to expand high-speed access in rural areas.

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, opting for its third interest rate cut this year in an effort to revive a sluggish labor market.

The reduction of interest rates could deliver some relief for mortgage and credit card borrowers.

The Fed’s benchmark rate stands between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell touted the rate cut as an effort to improve the labor market, but he suggested the central bank may be cautious about further rate reductions.

“We’re well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves,” Powell said.

Yesterday, the Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service today issued Notice 2026-05 PDF providing guidance on new tax benefits for Health Savings Account participants under the OBBBA. These changes expand HSA eligibility, which allows more people to save and to pay for healthcare costs through tax-free HSAs.

Expansion of HSA Eligibility Under the OBBBA

The OBBBA expands access to HSAs by making the following changes:

• Telehealth and Remote Care Services: The OBBBA made permanent the ability to receive telehealth and other remote care services before meeting the high-deductible health plan (HDHP) deductible while remaining eligible to contribute to an HSA, effective for plan years beginning on or after January 1, 2025.
• Bronze and Catastrophic Plans Treated as HDHPs: As of January 1, 2026, bronze and catastrophic plans available through an Exchange are considered HSA-compatible, regardless of whether the plans satisfy the general definition of an HDHP. This expands the ability of people enrolled in these plans to contribute to HSAs, which they generally have not been able to do in the past. Notice 2026-05 clarifies that bronze and catastrophic plans do not have to be purchased through an Exchange to qualify for the new relief.
• Direct Primary Care Service Arrangements: Beginning Jan. 1, 2026, an otherwise eligible individual enrolled in certain direct primary care (DPC) service arrangements may contribute to an HSA. In addition, they may use their HSA funds tax-free to pay periodic DPC fees.

Yesterday, Governor Evers announced he has signed Executive Order #282, declaring an energy emergency in the state of Wisconsin. Due to persistent challenges caused by a pipeline disruption within the Midwestern pipeline distribution system, coupled with high demand from severe winter weather for residential heating fuel, including heating oil and propane, Executive Order #282 will allow for the swift and efficient delivery of these products throughout the state.

 “The health, welfare, and safety of our neighbors depend on access to fuel for home heating, so I’m declaring this energy emergency to ensure folks and families across our state have the fuel they need to stay warm and safe,” said Gov. Evers.

According to the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin’s Office of Energy Innovation, multiple suppliers report challenges such as long lines at terminals and having to drive further distances to collect needed products.

Executive Order #282 will provide a waiver of certain state and federal hours of service restrictions, allowing suppliers to get caught up from the pipeline and weather-related delays. The waiver remains in effect through January 2 or as long as drivers transporting residential heating fuel are responding to the emergency, whichever is shorter.

Executive Order #282 can be found here.

On December 1, 2025, the U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline fell below $3.00 per gallon (gal) to $2.98/gal, according to data from the Energy Information Administration’s Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. When adjusted for inflation, the December 1 price is the lowest average U.S. gasoline price since February 2021.

The falling price of crude oil, which typically accounts for about half of the retail gasoline price, has led to a drop in the price consumers pay for gasoline.

Gasoline prices vary by region. On December 1, regular gasoline prices ranged between a low price of $2.55/gal on the U.S. Gulf Coast and a high price of $4.03/gal on the U.S. West Coast.

The Commerce Department on Friday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.3% in September from a month ago and is up 2.8% from last year.

Core PCE, which excludes volatile measurements of food and energy prices, was up 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.8% year over year.

Federal Reserve policymakers are focusing on the PCE headline figure as they try to bring inflation back to their long-run target of 2%, though they view core data as a better indicator of inflation. Headline PCE was flat at 2.8% from August to September, while core PCE declined slightly from 2.9% to 2.8%.

Prices for goods were up 1.4% in September from a year ago, an acceleration from the 0.9% reading in August and the 0.6% readings reported in both June and July.

Durable goods were up 0.9% from a year ago in September, a slight deceleration from the 1.2% reading in August. Nondurable goods price growth accelerated in September, rising 1.7% compared with last year following a 0.7% reading in August.

Services prices were up 3.4% in September from a year ago, slightly cooler than the 3.6% reported in August.

Governor Tony Evers has appointed a new leader to the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation, the governor’s office announced Wednesday.

John W. Miller will become the agency’s secretary and CEO beginning December 15. WEDC’s past secretary, Missy Hughes, stepped down in September and announced a bid for governor that month.

Miller is a Marquette Law School graduate who previously served as a congressional staffer in Washington, D.C. for Wisconsin’s 4th Congressional District.

He became the CEO of his family’s agricultural equipment manufacturing business in 2008, and founded a venture capital fund in Milwaukee to invest in Midwest startups in 2015, according to the governor’s office.

In a statement, Governor Evers said Miller has a “proven track record” of success in both the public and private sectors and called him “uniquely qualified” to lead the state’s economic development agency.

“John understands what it takes to build the 21st-century economy Wisconsinites need and deserve, and I have no doubt that his leadership will help us continue our work toward a stronger future for our state and communities across Wisconsin,” the governor stated.

Miller also served on the Library of Congress Trust Fund Board of Directors during the Obama Administration, and the United States Trade Representative Advisory Committee for Trade Policy and Negotiations during the Biden administration.

On Tuesday, the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin (PSC) announced the latest major milestone in the state’s efforts to expand high-speed internet statewide under a federal program designed to expand access to high-speed internet across the country.

On December 2, the federal government approved Wisconsin’s final proposal, which will unlock over $1 billion in federal investments secured under the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The Evers Administration’s proposal aims at expanding access to high-speed internet to more than 175,000 homes and businesses across the state.

The more than $1 billion in federal investments are unlocked through the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) approving Wisconsin’s final Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) Program proposal. As approved by NTIA, the awards will provide funding to serve all BEAD-eligible locations throughout the state with the support of more than $397 million in matching funds provided by recipients.

Funding will also support high-speed fiber internet services at Community Anchor Institutions such as schools, libraries, and local government and educational facilities. The breakdown of technologies represented in the awards is 76 percent fiber, 10 percent fixed wireless, and 14 percent satellite. With this NTIA approval, environmental review and final engineering of projects can now begin, and infrastructure construction is expected to commence in 2026.