Producer prices rose in March but considerably less than expected as the Iran war’s push on energy prices rekindled fears of another inflation burst.
The producer price index, a gauge of pipeline costs for final demand goods and services, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month. Excluding food and energy, core PPI was up just 0.1% against the forecast for 0.5%. The services side of inflation — a key focus for Federal Reserve policymakers — was flat on the month.
On an annual basis, the all-items PPI accelerated 4%, the biggest 12-month gain since February 2023. Core PPI posted a 3.8% annual gain. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI increased 0.2% monthly and 3.6% annually. Trade services slipped 0.3% for the month, an indicator that businesses are absorbing tariff costs.
As expected, energy was the primary culprit in the PPI gain. The gasoline index surged 15.7%, accounting for about half the gain in the PPI, according to the BLS. Diesel prices alone soared 42% while jet fuel was up 30.7%.
As a result, goods prices increased 1.6%, though that was offset by flat services costs, which Fed officials view as a key gauge being that it excludes tariff and war impacts.