Month: August 2025

The personal consumption expenditures price index showed that core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, ran at a 2.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to a Commerce Department report Friday. That was up 0.1 percentage point from the June level and the highest annual rate since February.

On a monthly basis, the core PCE index increased 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The all-items index showed the annual rate at 2.6% and the monthly gain at 0.2%.

Inflation numbers were held in check by a 2.7% annual decline in prices for energy goods and services. Food prices rose 1.9% from a year ago. The balance also tilted heavily toward services prices, which jumped 3.6%, compared with just a 0.5% increase in goods.

On a monthly basis, energy was off 1.1% and food was down 0.1%. Services prices rose 0.3%, essentially accounting for all the monthly increase as goods decreased 0.1%.

Five years after the COVID-19 national emergency was declared, gasoline demand, distillate demand, and jet fuel demand all remain less than pre-pandemic averages.

In April 2020 (the first full month following the March 13 declaration of the COVID-19 national emergency), U.S. gasoline demand fell to 5.9 million b/d, the lowest since January 1974. In April 2025, U.S. gasoline demand averaged 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d), 52% higher than it was in April 2020 but below the April 2019 average of 9.4 million b/d.

Gasoline demand gradually increased in the months following the emergency declaration. On an annual basis, between 2016 and 2019, U.S. gasoline demand averaged 9.3 million b/d. In 2020, it fell to 8.0 million b/d before averaging 8.9 million b/d in 2023 and 2024.

Increased vehicle efficiency has offset increased driving activity, measured as vehicle miles traveled (VMT). U.S. VMT reached an all-time high in 2024, at 9.0 billion miles per day, which was higher than the 2016–19 average of 8.8 billion VMT/d. However, increased fuel efficiency and electrification of the vehicle fleet has resulted in less gasoline consumption despite increased driving activity.

In May 2025, petroleum distillate fuel oil demand was 3.8 million b/d, 10% (0.3 million b/d) more than in May 2020, when demand for distillate fell to its lowest point following the COVID-19 declaration. Because distillate fuel oil is largely used in shipping goods and other economic activity, distillate consumption was less affected by COVID-19 mitigation efforts than gasoline and jet fuel, which are more closely tied to commuting and personal travel.

In 2024, petroleum distillate demand averaged 3.8 million b/d, less than the 4.1 million b/d consumed in 2019. The primary cause for this decline was substitution of petroleum diesel with biofuels, namely renewable diesel, which has gained a larger market share of the diesel pool due to clean-fuel programs that provide incentives for biofuels. In 2019, only 110,000 b/d of renewable diesel and biodiesel were consumed as product, whereas in 2024, 310,000 b/d were consumed. Including biodiesel and renewable diesel, total distillate demand in 2024 was closest to pre-pandemic levels, at only 1% below 2019 distillate demand.

The U.S. government’s budget deficits are now projected to worsen throughout the next decade when compared with earlier forecasts this year, according to a new report by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).

CRFB published an updated budget baseline as of August 2025 that incorporates the enactment of Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) along with the Trump administration’s new framework for tariffs to account for legislative and administrative changes, though it doesn’t include economic changes.

Under the updated baseline, CRFB projects that the national debt held by the public will rise from about 100% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 120% of GDP by 2035. In dollar terms, that would see the debt held by the public rise from $30 trillion today to $53 trillion in 2035.

In that timeframe, annual budget deficits are expected to rise from $1.7 trillion in 2025, or 5.6% of GDP; to $2.6 trillion, or 5.9% of GDP, in 2035. Overall, deficits are expected to total $22.7 trillion over the decade, averaging 6.1% of GDP in that period.

Higher interest costs on the national debt account for a significant portion of the increase, as net interest payments are expected to rise from $1 trillion in 2025 to $1.8 trillion in 2035, rising from 3.2% of GDP to about 4.1% of GDP.

Over the next decade, federal spending is projected to total $88 trillion, or 23.6% of GDP, while tax revenue will be over $65 trillion, or 17.5% of GDP.

Statewide home sales in July dipped 0.3% over the year as home prices and total listings increased over the same period, the Wisconsin Realtors Association reports.

The group’s July report shows 6,820 homes were sold in Wisconsin last month, down slightly from 6,843 in July 2024. At the same time, year-to-date home sales are 0.5% higher than during the same period of 2024, WRA says.

While sales last month were “relatively flat,” total listings were on the rise. The number of listings in the state increased 7.3% over the year, from 21,452 in July 2024 to 23,109 last month.

“All of our measures of inventory improved in July, which continues a general trend we’ve seen since April,” WRA Board of Directors Chair Chris DeVincentis said in the report. “Addressing the inventory shortage is key to improving sales and moderating the rapid appreciation of prices.”

That higher inventory level led to better sales growth in rural parts of the state, the report shows, as inventory growth in the state’s northern region rose 13% to 6.1 months of supply while closed sales also increased 12% over last year.

Wisconsin’s median home price rose 4.5% over the year from $322,500 to $337,125 last month.

Wisconsin state lawmakers are debating a proposal to eliminate taxes on income earned through tips.

At a hearing of the Assembly’s Ways and Means committee on Thursday, lawmakers took public testimony about the GOP bill, which would offer a state tax deduction for both cash and credit card tips up to $25,000 per year, phased out for higher-earning households.

The Wisconsin Department of Revenue’s estimate about the cost of the bill looked at an earlier version that did not include the $25,000 cap and only applied to cash tips. That estimate said exempting all tips from income tax would reduce state revenue by $33.7 million per year. It is unclear what the cost would be when the cap is applied.

According to the Department of Revenue, tips made up about 0.51 percent of all reported income in Wisconsin in 2021. That number has likely increased since restaurants returned to full strength following the COVID-19 pandemic.

The White House unveiled details for its trade deal with the European Union (EU) on Thursday.

The Trump administration said its EU counterparts have agreed to eliminate all tariffs on industrial goods imported from the U.S. and to widen preferential market access to U.S. seafood and agricultural products.

In exchange, most EU exports — notably pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber — will be taxed at 15 percent. The group of 27 member nations also agreed to ensure its companies invest $600 billion in the U.S. and to purchase at least $750 billion worth of U.S. energy over the next three years, according to the White House.

Under the agreement detailed Thursday, the EU has agreed to purchase at least $40 billion worth of U.S. artificial intelligence chips for its computing centers. It also allows for the 15 percent tariff on pharmaceuticals from European nations to be capped and not combined with other tariffs.

After the EU follows through on lowering tariffs on American goods, U.S. tariffs on cars and car parts will be lowered to 15 percent. Additional products expected to be subject to the 15 percent rate starting Sept. 1 include aircraft and aircraft parts, as well as chemical precursors.

Wisconsin has stopped blocking laid-off workers who receive disability benefits from collecting unemployment insurance — a response to court rulings that the practice violated federal discrimination law.

Now U.S. District Judge William Conley will consider whether and how the state should compensate workers for past denied claims. Attorneys representing the state and affected workers plan to propose remedies ahead of a hearing on Wednesday.

The state law in question prevented recipients of Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) — a monthly benefit for people with disabilities who have worked and paid into Social Security — from collecting unemployment insurance after losing work.

In proposing the law under Gov. Scott Walker in 2013, Republican lawmakers claimed that simultaneously collecting disability and unemployment benefits represented “double dipping” that “may constitute fraud.”

Conley ruled in July 2024 that the law violated the Americans with Disabilities Act and the Rehabilitation Act, citing its “disparate impact on disabled workers seeking unemployment insurance benefits.”

But the ruling was not immediately implemented. The state’s Department of Workforce Development continued denying unemployment claims until Conley ordered it to stop in July.

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 939,000 units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Tuesday. Permits for future single-family homebuilding edged up 0.5% to a rate of 870,000 units.

Overall residential project starts, including apartments, jumped 5.2% to a rate of 1.428 million units and permit issuance fell 2.8% to 1.354 million units.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, the most common U.S. home loan, fell to 6.58% last week, the lowest level since October, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. That rate is down by nearly half a percentage point since January.

The Wisconsin Department of Revenue (DOR) released its annual Equalized Values Report. The report shows Wisconsin’s total statewide equalized property value as of January 1, 2025, was $982.8 billion, an 8% increase over the prior year.

Growth occurred in all property classes and was led by value changes in residential and commercial property. Equalized values are based on data from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024.

Report highlights:
• Change in equalized value = $75 billion, an 8% increase from 2024
o $60.5 billion due to market value increases (7%)
o $15.2 billion due to new construction (2%)
• Florence County saw the largest increase at 17.84% followed by Iron and Rusk at 17.77% and 17.40%,
respectively.

Equalized values are calculated annually and used to ensure statewide fairness and equity in property tax distribution. The equalized value represents an estimate of a taxation district’s total taxable value and provides for the fair apportionment of school district and county levies to each municipality. Changes in equalized value do not necessarily translate into a change in property taxes.

Spending at U.S. retailers rose 0.5% in July, the Commerce Department said Friday.

Retail sales picked up across categories last month, especially at car dealerships and furniture stores, which saw sales climb 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively. Online sales jumped 0.8% in July, coinciding with Amazon’s Prime Day sale. Spending also picked up at gas stations and department stores.

Meanwhile, spending was down among only a handful of categories, including home improvement stores (-1%) and electronics retailers (-0.6%). Restaurants and bars also saw sales decline in July, falling 0.4%

A subset of retail sales that excludes volatile categories — known as the “control group” — rose 0.5% in July. That measure is seen as a better gauge of underlying consumer demand.