The U.S. government’s budget deficits are now projected to worsen throughout the next decade when compared with earlier forecasts this year, according to a new report by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).
CRFB published an updated budget baseline as of August 2025 that incorporates the enactment of Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) along with the Trump administration’s new framework for tariffs to account for legislative and administrative changes, though it doesn’t include economic changes.
Under the updated baseline, CRFB projects that the national debt held by the public will rise from about 100% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 120% of GDP by 2035. In dollar terms, that would see the debt held by the public rise from $30 trillion today to $53 trillion in 2035.
In that timeframe, annual budget deficits are expected to rise from $1.7 trillion in 2025, or 5.6% of GDP; to $2.6 trillion, or 5.9% of GDP, in 2035. Overall, deficits are expected to total $22.7 trillion over the decade, averaging 6.1% of GDP in that period.
Higher interest costs on the national debt account for a significant portion of the increase, as net interest payments are expected to rise from $1 trillion in 2025 to $1.8 trillion in 2035, rising from 3.2% of GDP to about 4.1% of GDP.
Over the next decade, federal spending is projected to total $88 trillion, or 23.6% of GDP, while tax revenue will be over $65 trillion, or 17.5% of GDP.