EIA Bumps Up Diesel Price Forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its U.S. diesel price forecast for 2023 and 2024 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO) report, which was released last week. The EIA now sees U.S. on-highway diesel fuel prices averaging $4.31 per gallon this year and $4.07 per gallon next year.

“We raised our diesel price forecast because of higher than expected August diesel crack spreads (the price of a gallon of diesel minus the price of a gallon of crude oil) and our expectation for lower distillate inventories in the fall,” the EIA noted in its September STEO.

“Announced maintenance at the Irving Oil refinery in St. John, New Brunswick, and at the Monroe Energy refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania, will reduce distillate fuel oil supplies to the East Coast,” the EIA added. “Total distillate inventories in the United States have been well below average since last year, and we currently estimate U.S. distillate inventories will decline by about 11 million barrels in October, more than the average October draw from 2018–22 of nearly 8 million barrels, largely because of the maintenance,” the EIA continued.

The EIA’s latest gasoline and diesel fuel update at the time of writing, which was released on September 11, shows a rising price trend in U.S. on-highway diesel fuel prices.

As of September 18, the average diesel price in the U.S. is $4.575 per gallon, according to the AAA Gas Prices website. Yesterday’s average was $4.571 per gallon, the week ago average was $4.475 per gallon, the month ago average was $4.347 per gallon, and the year ago average was $4.960 per gallon, the site highlighted.