The latest survey by a panel of 51 forecasters with the National Association for Business Economics shows they expect growth, as measured by the gross domestic product, to slow to 2.3% this year from 2.9% in 2018. The new forecast marks a downgrade from the 2.6% estimate for 2019 economic growth that the NABE panel had made in June.
For 2020, the forecasters expect GDP growth to fall to 1.8%. They see little likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months but expect the risk to increase by late next year.
The forecasters estimate just a 7% likelihood of a recession starting this year, a 24% likelihood by mid-2020 and 47% by the end of 2020. They foresee a 69% chance of a recession beginning by mid-2021.
The economy is in its 11th year of expansion, the longest on record in the United States. To help avoid a recession, the Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate twice this year.
Among the NABE panelists, about half foresee no further rate cuts this year; 43% envision at least one further cut. By the end of 2020, 69% expect the Fed to have cut its benchmark rate from where it is now.