Brian Dake

U.S. retail sales rose in November by the most since July, fueled by a rebound in auto purchases and resilient holiday shopping.

The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% after a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in October, Commerce Department data showed on January 14.

Excluding cars, sales climbed 0.5%. The report was delayed by the government shutdown.

Ten out of 13 categories posted increases, including sporting goods and hobby stores as well as building materials retailers and clothing outlets.

Motor vehicle sales bounced back after the expiration of federal tax incentives on electric cars restrained sales in the prior month. Higher receipts at gasoline stations also contributed to the overall gain.

Spending at restaurants and bars, the only service-sector category in the retail report, gained 0.6% after falling in the prior month.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in December and held steady at 2.7% on a year-over-year basis.

So-called core prices, which exclude volatile measurements of gasoline and food to better assess price growth trends, were up 0.2% from the prior month and 2.6% from a year ago.

Food prices increased 0.7% for the month and were up 3.1% from a year ago. The food at home index was up 2.4% from a year ago, while the food away from home index was up 4.1% since last year. Both were up 0.7% on a monthly basis.

Energy prices rose 0.3% in December and are 2.3% higher than a year ago. Gas prices were down 0.4% on a monthly basis and have decreased 3.4% since this time last year. Electricity costs declined 0.1% in December but have risen 6.7% in the past year.

Housing prices increased 0.4% in December and were up 3.2% compared with last year. The BLS noted that the increase in the shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly CPI increase. Tenants’ and household insurance costs increased 1% in December and have risen 8.2% over the last year.

Transportation services costs were up 0.5% for December and 1.5% from a year ago. Auto maintenance and servicing costs increased 0.5% for the month and are up 4.9% from last year, while vehicle repair costs declined 3.7% on a monthly basis and are up 6.2% from last December.

Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 54 in January’s preliminary reading from a final reading of 52.9 in December.

“Improvements in January were seen among lower-income consumers, while sentiment fell for those with higher incomes,” Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu noted.

The report found that year-ahead inflation expectations were steady at 4.2% to start January, which is the lowest reading since January 2025 but well above that month’s 3.3% inflation expectations.

“All told, while consumers perceived some modest improvement in the economy over the past two months, their sentiment remains nearly 25% below last January’s reading,” Hsu added.

“They continue to be focused primarily on kitchen table issues, like high prices and softening labor markets. Although consumers’ worries about tariffs appear to be gradually receding, they remain guarded about the overall strength of business conditions and labor markets,” she explained.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Financial Services (FRFS) announced new actions to better support the circulation of pennies for commercial activity. Beginning on January 14, 2026, the Federal Reserve will resume accepting pennies from banks and credit unions at commercial coin distribution locations providing services under arrangements with the Federal Reserve that were previously suspended.

While the Federal Reserve continues to support penny deposits, local inventory constraints had limited that activity at some locations. Our monitoring of the flow of penny deposits from financial institutions as these changes take effect will determine whether some subsequent expansion of ordering options for pennies is feasible, given that penny production has ended.

The Federal Reserve’s role for coin is limited to distribution to banks and credit unions on behalf of the U.S. Mint, which is the nation’s issuing authority for coins. The Federal Reserve does not provide coins directly to businesses or consumers.

The Department of Workforce Development (DWD) encourages employers to apply for Wisconsin Fast Forward (WFF) grants, which aim to address the state’s demand for skilled workers. Employers in every industry and of all sizes across Wisconsin are eligible to apply for this round of WFF funding to train their workers.

The WFF program supports innovative local and regional solutions to help employers meet workforce needs in their areas. Grants reimburse the costs of customized occupational training for unemployed, underemployed, and existing workers. Approximately $1.5 million is available for grants ranging from $5,000 to $400,000, or higher for consortium applicants. The grants can cover training that qualifies workers for full-time positions, higher-level roles, or increased wages.

“The Fast Forward program is a strategic investment in the state’s workforce that fills in-demand positions for employers while offering workers the skills they need to succeed,” said DWD Secretary Amy Pechacek. “These grants strengthen Wisconsin’s workforce for the future, and we encourage employers to apply for funding to support their workforce.”

Eligible applicants include:

• Public agencies
• Private organizations in all industry sectors
• A consortium with the lead public or private organization serving as the applicant
• Tribal governing bodies of a federally recognized tribe or band of Native Americans or an organization appointed by a tribal governing body

Applications are due by 3 p.m. CST Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2026.

More information and instructions to apply can be found at the Wisconsin Fast Forward Program website.

The U.S. Department of Labor’s Wage and Hour Division today issued six opinion letters designed to promote clarity, consistency, and transparency in the application of federal labor standards under the Fair Labor Standards Act and Family and Medical Leave Act.

The opinion letters provide official written interpretations from the division that address real-world questions and explain how laws apply to specific factual circumstances presented by individuals or organizations, that may also have a broader interest to those impacted by the issue presented.

The opinion letters issued today are:

• FLSA2026-1: Whether an employee’s role meets the criteria for the learned professional exemption under section 13(a)(1) of the FLSA, and, if so, whether an employer is nevertheless permitted to reclassify the employee as non-exempt.
• FLSA2026-2: Whether section 7(e) of the FLSA permits an employer to exclude certain bonus payments from an employee’s regular rate of pay. The letter also addresses how to include these payments in the calculation of employee overtime premiums if the payments must be included in an employee’s regular rate of pay.
• FLSA2026-3: Whether a union and employer can enter into a collective bargaining agreement that mandates a 15-minute “roll call” prior to each scheduled shift but excludes that time when calculating overtime premiums under the FLSA.
• FLSA2026-4: Whether, for purposes of the overtime exemption for certain commissioned employees in section 7(i) of the FLSA, an employer in a jurisdiction in which the state minimum wage exceeds the federal minimum wage must use the federal minimum wage, or alternatively, the higher state minimum wage, to determine whether it has satisfied the minimum pay standard in section 7(i)(1), and whether tips are deemed compensation for purposes of section 7(i)(2)’s requirement that more than half the employee’s compensation consist of commissions.
• FMLA2026-1: How a school closure of less than a full week impacts the amount of leave a school employee uses under the FMLA.
• FMLA2026-2: Whether FMLA leave may be used for time spent traveling to or from medical appointments, including where an employee provided the employer with medical certification from a health care provider that confirms the employee’s need for the appointment, but the certification does not address travel to or from the appointment.

In June, Deputy Secretary of Labor Keith Sonderling announced the launch of the department’s opinion letter program, which expands the department’s longstanding commitment to providing meaningful compliance assistance that helps workers, employers, and other stakeholders understand how federal labor laws apply in specific workplace situations.

Crude oil prices generally declined in 2025 with supplies in the global crude oil market exceeding demand. Crude oil inventory builds in China muted some of the price decline.

On a monthly average basis, the price of Brent crude oil declined from a high of $79 per barrel (b) in January to a low of $63/b in December, which was the lowest monthly average price since early 2021. The annual average price was $69/b, the lowest since 2020, even when adjusting for inflation.

In the first half of the year, crude oil prices declined in response to slowing economic activity, which can affect global oil demand. Prices decreased in the first quarter (1Q25) with a contraction in U.S. GDP, and prices fell nearly $15/b further in April amid expectations that escalating tariffs among large economies could continue to slow economic growth.

In the second half of the year, OPEC+ announcements that increased crude oil production targets for the group increased the prospect of an oversupplied market. The EIA estimates that global production of crude oil and liquid fuels outpaced consumption throughout 2025, with implied stock builds of more than 2.5 million barrels per day in the final two quarters of the year. These stock builds were the largest recorded since 2000, aside from in 2020.

Generally, crude oil prices tend to decrease as global petroleum stocks increase.

Wisconsin has another jam-packed election season in 2026, and for the first time in years, the future of which party holds power at the Capitol and controls state government is truly up in the air.

Over the summer, Democratic Governor Tony Evers announced he would retire at the end of his current term, leaving the seat of the state’s chief executive wide open for the first time since 2010. A long list of Democrats have jumped in the race to replace him, and two Republicans have also announced bids.

In the state Legislature, Democrats also see a chance to flip at least the Senate if not the Assembly after the state’s legislative maps were redrawn to be more competitive.

But nothing is certain, said University of Wisconsin-La Crosse political science professor Anthony Chergosky. He said it’s completely possible for Democrats to win a trifecta and control both the Legislature and the governor’s seat, but Republicans also stand a chance. The power could also be split between the parties again, he said.

“There is genuine uncertainty in a way that we have not seen in a long time about the balance of power in Wisconsin government. When we look ahead to this election cycle, I mean, pick your combination,” Chergosky said. “Mix and match your options and all of them are on the table.”