Brian Dake

Wisconsin Wage Growth, Labor Force Participation Slowing in 2019

Wisconsin’s economic data demonstrates plenty of reasons to be optimistic. The state last year posted its best year of GDP growth since 2010, unemployment has regularly been at or below 3%, and the number of people working has been at or near record levels.

Wisconsin’s economy, however, tends to follow the trend of the national economy, which is now in its longest expansion on record. So is the state exceeding its growth expectations given the national environment, or are the record numbers the result of riding the country’s coattails?

The answer depends on the metric in question.

One area where Wisconsin has diverged from national trends is in labor force participation. Employers point to the state’s low unemployment rate as a reason for slower job growth, but Kurt Rankin, an economist and vice president with the PNC Financial Services Group, said the low rate is being sustained by labor force declines.

Since reaching its most recent peak of 68.5% in mid-2017, Wisconsin’s seasonally adjusted labor force participation rate has fallen 1.2 percentage points to 67.3% in May. The shift equates to more than 24,000 people leaving the state’s workforce.

An aging workforce and retiring baby boomers would seem to explain the decline, but Rankin said that is not the case nationally.

“Unless Wisconsin is bucking the national trend, which I doubt … older workers, by and large, are choosing to remain in the workforce,” he said.

 

State Senators ask DOT to Fund Local Roads Despite Governor’s Veto

State Senator Howard Marklein (R-Spring Green) and nine Republican Senators sent a letter to Wisconsin Department of Transportation (DOT) Secretary-Designee Craig Thompson to encourage him to spend the $75 million in the State Budget that was meant to fund local road improvement on – local roads – as they intended.

“The Senate Republicans worked hard to create a local road funding package for the state budget that would have a strong, meaningful, immediate impact on our local roads,” Marklein said. “Our constituents told us that this is one of their top priorities and we responded with a thoughtful, strong investment.”

“We started with $133 million for local roads, which was then compromised to $90 million to be divided among the towns, counties, cities and villages for local road maintenance and repair. This is what the legislature passed in our budget.”

“Unfortunately, Governor Tony Evers shaved $15 million off of these dollars and further vetoed all of the language to direct the funding to local roads. We have been concerned that the DOT will not spend the remaining $75 million on local roads. The letter we sent today clarifies the legislative intent of our votes on the state budget and encourages the DOT to follow-through with this strong investment to fix our local roads.”

“People throughout the state told us that they want their roads fixed. The legislature answered this call with a big investment that would send the money to projects that will matter to the people we serve. We have asked the DOT to honor this commitment and follow-through. We are optimistic that they will.”

Governor Evers will lead Trade Mission to Japan in September

Governor Tony Evers will lead a trade mission to Japan from Sept. 6-14 as part of the state’s efforts to expand exports by Wisconsin companies. This will be the first trade mission of his new administration.

“This mission provides an excellent opportunity to establish the personal relationships that are so important to doing business in Japan,” Governor Evers said. “Japan is Wisconsin’s sixth-highest export destination, and our exports continue to grow. In just the first quarter of this year, exports from our state to Japan rose by 11% over the same period last year.”

The mission will be coordinated by the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC), the state’s lead economic development organization. The trip will include visits to Tokyo, Yokohama and Chiba City. Governor Evers will also attend the Midwest U.S.-Japan Conference.

Wisconsin exported $734.3 million worth of goods to Japan in 2018. Top Wisconsin exports to Japan include industrial machinery, which grew 44% alone in the first quarter of this year; medical and scientific instruments; electrical machinery; and prepared meat and seafood products.

The registration deadline is July 26. To learn more or register, please visit https://wedc.org/ japan19.

Wisconsin Foreclosure Rates Lowest in Two Decades

Wisconsin foreclosure rates are the lowest the state has seen in nearly two decades, according to a researcher who tracks foreclosures.

Russell Kashian, economic professor at the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, said the rates have dropped because of stricter lending criteria, more renters and high employment rates, Wisconsin Public Radio reported.

Kashian started tracking foreclosures in 2008 in order to identify hot spots in Wisconsin. Milwaukee County had one of the highest foreclosure rates in the state, Kashian’s research indicates.

The research estimates that 36 to 55 foreclosures were filed per 10,000 people in Milwaukee County in 2009. A decade later, those numbers were 11 to 20 foreclosures filings per 10,000 individuals.

“The foreclosure rate has gone down considerably, to almost one quarter,” Kashian said. “It’s gone down greater in wealthier areas, and it’s gone down less in minority areas and less affluent areas.”

In 2019, there have been nearly 3,600 foreclosure filings in Wisconsin, Kashian’s research revealed.

President Trump Pitches new North America Trade Deal during Stop in Wisconsin

President Trump on Friday sought to boost his renegotiated North America trade agreement during a speech to employees at a Wisconsin factory, as his top legislative priority faces an uncertain path through Congress.

Trump urged Congress to approve the USMCA “immediately” so that he could sign it into law. He encouraged lawmakers to view the new trade agreement as a “bipartisan bill” before attacking House Democrats over ongoing investigations into his administration.

While Mexico has ratified the USMCA and Canada has taken steps to approve aspects of the deal, the pact has stalled in Congress as House Democrats push for additional assurances on environmental and labor protections.

Trump administration trade officials have praised Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for her collaboration in working through changes to the legislation, but time is running out if lawmakers are to approve the trade deal before the end of the year.

Congress is unable to vote on the pact until the White House sends the implementation legislation, and CNBC reported that the White House is likely to send the USMCA to Congress after Sept. 1.

Federal Deficit Jumps to $747 Billion

The federal deficit rose to $747 billion over the past nine months, a 23 percent increase compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year, according to Treasury figures released Thursday.

The Treasury Department said in the same report that the deficit is expected to exceed $1 trillion by Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year. Revenue was up 2.5 percent, failing to keep pace with the 6.6 percent rise in outlays.

While the largest spending categories remained Social Security, defense, Medicare and health, the sixth-highest expenditure was for servicing the debt.

The amount spent on net interest was also the fastest growing category, increasing 16.4 percent, nearly twice as fast as defense spending and well above increases for Medicare, health, and Social Security.

AT&T Says It Will Automatically Block Robocalls ‘In the Coming Months’

In June, the Federal Communications Commission ruled that carriers could block robocalls for their customers by default — without requiring the customers opt in first.

Now, AT&T is following through on the ruling, enabling its Call Protect service by default for new and existing lines. New customers will automatically have Call Protect enabled going forward, and existing customers will have it enabled “in the coming months.”

AT&T’s Call Protect service does three things: it detects and blocks fraudulent calls entirely, flags telemarketers and spam calls as “Suspected Spam” when the phone rings, and allows you to maintain a personal block list to specifically block individual numbers.

AT&T is the first major US carrier to enable free call blocking for all of its customers in the wake of the FCC ruling.

T-Mobile offers similar features, but only its ScamID service is enabled by default. T-Mobile customers still have to enable its Scam Block feature manually, and the Name ID service that identifies numbers still costs extra. Similarly, Verizon’s Call Filter service needs to be enabled manually, even for the free version, while Sprint’s Premium Caller ID service costs extra and likely won’t be enabled for free anytime soon.

GOP Lawmakers Propose Limiting Governor’s Veto Power

Republican State lawmakers are proposing a resolution that would limit the veto powers of Wisconsin governors less than a week after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers issued 68 partial vetoes of the state budget.

The proposal, sponsored by Sen. David Craig, R-Big Bend, and Rep. Mike Kuglitsch, R-New Berlin, would bar the governor from making any vetoes that increase state spending.

Governor Evers used his veto pen to increase K-12 education spending in the budget by about $65 million.

The proposal appears to have a footing in the GOP-controlled Legislature.

Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau, issued a statement Tuesday saying he supports the plan.

“Governors of both parties have used their partial veto powers to increase appropriations above what is authorized by the Legislature, which is concerning to lawmakers who are tasked with setting spending levels,” Fitzgerald said in the statement. “I look forward to discussing this resolution in the coming months.”

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, also said he supports the resoution.

“It’s common sense to not be able to increase spending through a veto,” Vos said in a statement. “I plan to have a caucus discussion on the amendment in the near future.”

The governor’s spokeswoman, Melissa Baldauff, dismissed the proposal as the action of “sore losers” who “want to change the rules every time they don’t get their way.”

“Republicans in the Legislature chose to ignore the will of the people, but Gov. Evers listened to the people who overwhelmingly said they wanted to see more investments in our public schools,” Baldauff said. “To be clear, this is a temper tantrum in response to Gov. Evers using his authority to align the budget more closely with the will of the people and put more money into our kids’ schools

 

CBO Weighs in on a $15 Minimum Wage

Under a $15 minimum wage, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that 17 million workers would see higher pay — plus some smaller number who already made more than $15 but might get raises too — while 1.3 million would lose their employment.

This implies the policy would kick one person out of his job for every 13 people who got a direct pay boost. And naturally those raises don’t come from nowhere; they’re paid by businesses, which in turn earn money from customers.

Adding together the various effects — higher wages, lower employment, higher prices, etc. — the CBO estimates that, on balance, a $15 minimum wage would give $7.7 billion to folks below the poverty line, boosting their income 5.3% percent, and $14.2 billion to folks between one and three times the poverty line, boosting their income 3.5%.

Everyone above that loses a small percentage of income (0.1 to 0.3%, depending on which income group we’re talking about), but these amounts add up to $30.5 billion, meaning that the policy costs Americans in general $8.7 billion net.

Governor Tony Evers Signs State Budget into Law

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers signed the Republican-crafted state budget into law Wednesday after issuing 78 line-item vetoes and moving to increase school spending by around $65 million in the next two years.

The actions came after the GOP-controlled Legislature approved the $81 billion spending plan last week, sending it to the governor’s desk.

The version of the plan Republicans approved featured some $2 billion less in spending than what Evers originally requested, and it didn’t include measures such as accepting the Medicaid expansion, providing $1.4 billion more in education funding and raising the gas tax for the first time in more than a decade.

Still, Evers during a news conference at the Capitol Wednesday credited his budget and administration for being able to “finally move the needle” in the GOP-controlled Legislature.

“But I have to make this clear: this budget is just a down payment on the people’s budget,” he said, as he pledged to continue pushing for the state to take the federal Medicaid expansion dollars.

Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau, called Evers’ 78 vetoes “minimal” and said the GOP budget was “kept intact” for the most part.

“None of (the vetoes) jump out at me so significant that I think you can make the case that he really changed the document that we passed on the floor of the Senate last week,” he told reporters.