Month: January 2026

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday amid what U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell described as a solid economy ​and diminished risks to both inflation and employment, an outlook that could signal a lengthy wait before any further reductions in borrowing costs.

“The economy has once again surprised us with its ‌strength,” Powell said at a press conference after Fed policymakers voted 10-2 to hold the central bank’s benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range following a two-day meeting.

Noting broad internal support for the decision, Powell said the Fed remains “well-positioned” to assess when or whether another rate cut may be needed.

“There could be combinations, infinite numbers of combinations that would cause us to want to move,” he said, with labor market weakening or inflation heading back down to the Fed’s 2% goal as two of those possibilities.

Since the Fed’s last policy meeting in December, when it delivered a third straight rate cut, “the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to employment have diminished. But they still ‌exist,” Powell said. “We think our policy is in a good place.”

The state Assembly passed a package of nuclear energy incentives Thursday, with backers promising a “nuclear renaissance” in Wisconsin amid a data center building boom.

The legislation, authored by State Rep. Shae Sortwell, R-Two Rivers, and state Sen. Jesse James, R-Thorp, would offer two decades of tax credits for companies building new nuclear plants in the state. During the first 10 years, they’d qualify for annual $10,000 credits. After that, the credits would decrease by $1,000 per year.

It would make nuclear energy a high priority for Wisconsin and include nuclear power alongside other sources like wind and solar in a new “low-carbon-emission resource” definition in state law. It would also authorize the Wisconsin Public Service Commission to approve tariffs aimed at preventing residential customers from paying costs associated with providing electricity to large users, like data centers.

It passed the Assembly on an 86-11 vote, with strong support from both parties.

Unlike in years past, Democrats and Republicans have, for the most part, gotten behind the push for new nuclear power facilities in Wisconsin recently. Currently, the Point Beach Nuclear Plant in Two Rivers is the only plant of its kind in the state.

The Wisconsin state budget, signed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in July, included $2 million for a nuclear power feasibility study. Later, he signed legislation creating a nuclear power summit board to advance nuclear and fusion energy in the state and directing the state Public Service Commission to study potential sites for new reactors.

Wisconsin’s tax burden remained at an all-time low in 2025, as its residents’ combined incomes grew at the same rate as state and local tax collections, a new Wisconsin Policy Forum report finds.

This ratio between what Wisconsin residents pay in all state and local taxes and what they receive in income from all sources held steady at 9.60% in 2025 — matching the previous year’s record low to remain at the lowest total burden since at least the 1970s.

Each year, the Wisconsin Policy Forum examines every local and state tax paid, from bingo license fees ($187,039 in 2025) to gross local property taxes ($13.64 billion). To these fiscal year 2025 figures, we compare state personal income data from the prior calendar year, in this case 2024, to calculate tax burdens.

Overall state and local tax collections in 2025 rose 5.0%, making it one of the largest annual increases in the last two decades. That was due in part to the largest percentage increase in local tax revenue in two decades. However, the state and local tax burden held steady because statewide personal income also grew by 5.0% in 2025.

However, the experience of individual taxpayers will vary. The average tax burden may be felt differently depending on where in the state a taxpayer lives, his or her level and source of income, type of business, and other factors.

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast retail U.S. gasoline prices will be lower the next two years than in 2025, falling 6% in 2026 and then increasing 1% in 2027. Our gasoline price forecast generally follows a similar path as global crude oil prices, but decreasing U.S. refinery capacity this year may offset some of the effects of lower crude oil prices on gasoline, especially in the West Coast region.

On a regional basis, we expect gasoline prices to decrease in every region in 2026 and increase in 2027. Despite that expected increase, 2027 average gasoline prices remain less than 2025 averages in every region except the West Coast (PADD 5), where we expect the upcoming loss of refinery capacity will contribute to relatively higher gasoline margins and gasoline prices that are about equal to 2025, in nominal terms.

The West Coast region typically has the highest gasoline prices in the country, and we expect that trend to continue through 2027. We expect the Gulf Coast region to maintain the lowest gasoline prices through the forecast, followed by the Midwest.

Our forecast for generally lower retail gasoline prices over the next two years follows an ongoing trend of falling gasoline prices since reaching a historical high point of $5/gallon in mid-2022. On a nominal basis, we estimate the 20 cents-per-gallon decrease in 2026 will be comparable to price decreases in 2024 and 2025.

The price of crude oil is the largest factor in determining U.S. retail gasoline prices. In the previous 10 years, the price of crude oil used at U.S. refineries accounted for slightly more than 50%, on average, of the retail average gasoline price. In 2026 and 2027, we expect crude oil’s contribution to the retail average gasoline price to fall below 45%, on an annual average basis. We expect global increases in crude oil supply to continue to outpace increases in demand in 2026 and for crude oil prices to fall to their lowest annual average since 2020.

Last Thursday, the United States Department of Labor’s Employee Benefits Security Administration today announced the overhaul of its national enforcement projects for fiscal year 2026 to ensure an even-handed, responsive approach to investigations to produce the best results for American workers, retirees, and their families.

The changes to the national enforcement projects, the most significant EBSA has made in recent years, highlight where EBSA will focus its enforcement resources to increase broad-based employee benefit plan compliance, address abusive practices and bad actors, and deliver results that increase security for participants and beneficiaries.

Under the updated enforcement projects, investigators will prioritize cases related to:

• Cybersecurity
• Barriers to mental health and substance use disorder benefits
• Protecting benefit distributions
• Retirement asset management
• Surprise billing
• Criminal abuse of contributory benefit plans

Although not a national project, EBSA will continue its long-standing commitment to identifying abusive Multiple Employer Welfare Arrangements and preventing fraudulent MEWA operators from opening new arrangements in other states.

EBSA removed Employee Stock Ownership Plans from the national enforcement project list and will reduce its focus on missing participants following the establishment of the Retirement Savings Lost and Found Database.

“We are committed to conducting our investigations in a timely and fair manner, ensuring both compliance outcomes and recoveries that benefit participants and beneficiaries,” said Assistant Secretary for Employee Benefits Security Daniel Aronowitz. “We urge plans and service providers under review to respond promptly to our requests for information and findings, which will aid us in resolving issues efficiently and effectively.”

EBSA is responsible for protecting more than 156 million workers, retirees, and their families who are covered by approximately 2.6 million health plans, 801,000 private retirement plans, and 514,000 additional welfare benefit plans. Together, these plans hold about $13.8 trillion in assets.

Wisconsin state government may have a lot more money than previously expected after new revenue projections show the state’s budget picture improving by $1.5 billion.

The estimates from the nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau would leave the state with a $2.5 billion balance at the end of the two-year budget on June 30, 2027. The state was previously expecting a balance of closer to a $1 billion.

While the numbers are still just projections, they’re based in part on trends in actual tax collection and represent a significant uptick in revenue, particularly from the corporate and income taxes.

The new estimates are noteworthy, in part, because they come just a half-year after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican lawmakers reached a budget deal that spent down a previous surplus. That deal included increased spending on Evers initiatives like special education and child care, mixed with GOP priorities, like about $1.5 billion in tax cuts.

They also come at a time when the Legislature is racing to finish its business, and in an election year when control of state government hangs in the balance.

Just days earlier, Evers was promoting his 2026 agenda, including a $1.3 billion package aimed at lowering property taxes.

Republicans said Evers’ plan would be a non-starter until he agreed to repeal his so-called 400-year veto, which would increase state revenue limits for centuries.

When the new revenue numbers were released, GOP cochairs of the Legislature’s Joint Finance Committee said in a written statement that Republicans had put the state in a strong financial position through “stability and restraint,” and these projections would let them continue that.

“Despite stronger-than-expected collection numbers, we must remain cautious,” said Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green, and Rep. Mark Born, R-Beaver Dam. “These increased revenue estimates are driven in part by strong stock market performance and resulting tax collections. We must be careful when committing to ongoing spending using one-time money.”

Republican lawmakers are moving forward with a plan to cut state taxes on tips in Wisconsin, mirroring a similar change at the federal level.

The GOP bill would create an income tax subtraction for qualified tips that people can deduct on their income tax returns. It would cover tips received in 2025 and continue through the year 2028.

The measure comes about a year after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers included a “no taxes on tips” provision in his proposed state budget, only to see it removed by Republicans who run the Legislature.

At a meeting of the Legislature’s budget committee Wednesday, Democrats said making the change in this bill would require people to file amended returns to take advantage of the tax break. Rep. Deb Andraca, D-Whitefish Bay, said it’s a popular policy that should happen, but not like this.

“Had it passed in the governor’s budget, it would have passed in time for the Department of Revenue to issue tax guidance,” Andraca said. “But doing it now, we’re setting ourselves up for an awful lot of red tape, reprinting forms, having people re-file.”

The plan passed the budget committee 12-4 with only Republicans in support. Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green, noted that if the state waited a year to implement the change, it would mean workers would have to wait for the benefits. The Legislative Fiscal Bureau estimated the difference would be $44 million.

“We’re talking a lot of money that those taxpayers are going to forfeit,” Marklein said.

The state plan is scheduled for a vote before the entire Assembly Thursday. It has yet to receive a vote before the Senate.

U.S. retail sales rose in November by the most since July, fueled by a rebound in auto purchases and resilient holiday shopping.

The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% after a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in October, Commerce Department data showed on January 14.

Excluding cars, sales climbed 0.5%. The report was delayed by the government shutdown.

Ten out of 13 categories posted increases, including sporting goods and hobby stores as well as building materials retailers and clothing outlets.

Motor vehicle sales bounced back after the expiration of federal tax incentives on electric cars restrained sales in the prior month. Higher receipts at gasoline stations also contributed to the overall gain.

Spending at restaurants and bars, the only service-sector category in the retail report, gained 0.6% after falling in the prior month.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in December and held steady at 2.7% on a year-over-year basis.

So-called core prices, which exclude volatile measurements of gasoline and food to better assess price growth trends, were up 0.2% from the prior month and 2.6% from a year ago.

Food prices increased 0.7% for the month and were up 3.1% from a year ago. The food at home index was up 2.4% from a year ago, while the food away from home index was up 4.1% since last year. Both were up 0.7% on a monthly basis.

Energy prices rose 0.3% in December and are 2.3% higher than a year ago. Gas prices were down 0.4% on a monthly basis and have decreased 3.4% since this time last year. Electricity costs declined 0.1% in December but have risen 6.7% in the past year.

Housing prices increased 0.4% in December and were up 3.2% compared with last year. The BLS noted that the increase in the shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly CPI increase. Tenants’ and household insurance costs increased 1% in December and have risen 8.2% over the last year.

Transportation services costs were up 0.5% for December and 1.5% from a year ago. Auto maintenance and servicing costs increased 0.5% for the month and are up 4.9% from last year, while vehicle repair costs declined 3.7% on a monthly basis and are up 6.2% from last December.

Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 54 in January’s preliminary reading from a final reading of 52.9 in December.

“Improvements in January were seen among lower-income consumers, while sentiment fell for those with higher incomes,” Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu noted.

The report found that year-ahead inflation expectations were steady at 4.2% to start January, which is the lowest reading since January 2025 but well above that month’s 3.3% inflation expectations.

“All told, while consumers perceived some modest improvement in the economy over the past two months, their sentiment remains nearly 25% below last January’s reading,” Hsu added.

“They continue to be focused primarily on kitchen table issues, like high prices and softening labor markets. Although consumers’ worries about tariffs appear to be gradually receding, they remain guarded about the overall strength of business conditions and labor markets,” she explained.