Brian Dake

Retail Sales Rise at Slower-than-Expected Pace in June

Retail sales rose 0.2% in June from the previous month, lower than Wall Street’s estimates for 0.5% growth. Sales excluding auto and gas increased 0.3%, in line with estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, May’s sales were revised up to 0.5% from 0.3%.

Seven of the 13 categories highlighted in the release saw increases from a month ago. Furniture and home furniture stores increased 1.4% while electronics and appliance stores gained 1.1%. Growth at nonstore retailers, which includes online sales, helped keep total sales higher than the month prior with a 1.9% increase from May.

Department stores saw sales decline 2.4%. Meanwhile, gasoline stations declined by the most of any major category, falling 1.4% from the month prior. Sales at grocery stores fell 0.7%. The monthly retail sales report does not adjust statistics for inflation.

The details are fairly encouraging overall, but we still remain of the view that the consumer is slowing down,” Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons wrote on Thursday. “Were it not for the Social Security-fueled jump in January, the first half of this year would look fairly subdued. Consumers are facing tougher choices when it comes to spending, now that they have their biggest incentive to rebuild and increase their savings in decades.”

Do You Live in Milwaukee’s North Suburbs? You Might have an Election on Tuesday

If you live in the north suburbs of Milwaukee — including Germantown, Grafton, Menomonee Falls and Mequon — you may have a special election on Tuesday.

Voters in parts of Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha counties will head to the polls to elect Republican Paul Melotik or Democrat Bob Tatterson to the state Assembly. The seat became vacant when Republican Dan Knodl won a special election for a seat in the state Senate this spring.

Melotik has co-owned and operated several businesses, including Fire Ridge Golf Club in Grafton. He has served on the Ozaukee County Board for 11 years and the Grafton Town Board for six years. He describes himself as a “fiscal conservative” and is interested in working on budgetary issues if elected to the Assembly. His other priorities include education and conservation, and he supports school choice and 2nd Amendment rights.

Tatterson is a retired engineer and now invests in and advises start-up companies. He is also active in community volunteering and was formerly a volunteer firefighter. He describes himself as a “moderate Democrat.” His priorities include public education, including building a skilled workforce through higher education. He supports abortion access and wants to see “common sense gun safety laws” like red flag laws.

Both candidates said they support fully funding law enforcement and working to address EMS staffing challenges in their district.

U.S. Wholesale Prices for June Point to Easing of Inflation Pressures

The government’s producer price index — which measures inflation before it reaches consumers — rose just 0.1% last month from June 2022, the smallest such increase since August 2020. And from May to June, prices rose an identical 0.1% after having fallen 0.4% from April to May.

The index that the Labor Department issued Thursday reflects prices charged by manufacturers, farmers and wholesalers.

Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, noted that wholesale price increases are already coming in below the 2% year-over-year inflation rate that the Fed wants to see.

“On the consumer side,’’ she cautioned in a research note,“ progress has been slower,” though she expects consumer prices to decelerate further this year and into 2024.

Farooqi said she didn’t expect the June inflation numbers to “to change the outcome of the upcoming (Fed) meeting’’ at which she, like most economists, expects a quarter-point hike in the central bank’s benchmark rate. That rate affects many consumer and business loans throughout the economy.

Milwaukee Common Council Approves 2% Sales Tax Increase

The Milwaukee Common Council voted 12-3 on Tuesday to approve the higher sales tax. That was two more than the two-thirds majority needed to succeed. The sales tax in Milwaukee will go up 2 cents per dollar next year.

The state sales tax is 5%. If the county goes along with the city and approves the higher sales tax rate, sales taxes in the city of Milwaukee would be 7.9%.

The additional sales tax in the city of Milwaukee will bring in nearly $200 million more in revenue next year, which the city has to use to pay for its pension and to increase the number of police officers and firefighters.

 

Consumer Inflation Rose Just 3% in June

The Labor Department said Wednesday that the consumer price index, a broad measure of the price for everyday goods including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 0.2% in June from the previous month.

Prices climbed 3% on an annual basis. Although inflation has cooled from a peak of 9.1%, it still remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate.

Other parts of the report pointed to a steady retreat for inflation. Core prices, which exclude the more volatile measurements of food and energy, climbed 0.2%, or 4.8% annually.

The report is the last before the Fed’s policy-setting next meeting on July 25-26 and will have major implications for the U.S. central bank, which raised interest rates 10 straight times over the course of 15 months in a bid to crush out-of-control inflation.

“Prices for everything from eggs to used cars dropped in June, causing a big deflation in inflation,” said Robert Frick, a corporate economist for the Navy Federal Credit Union. “By one measure, inflation is just one-third of what it was a year ago. However, this is not yet a turning point. Core inflation will prove tougher to beat.”

Governor Evers’ Budget Vetoes Leave State with Projected $4 Billion Surplus

One of the biggest questions headed into this year’s state budget debate was how Republican lawmakers and Gov. Tony Evers would handle Wisconsin’s record surplus. Now that the dust has mostly settled, there’s plenty of money left over.

Wisconsin began the two-year budget cycle with a projected surplus of roughly $7 billion in its general fund. Following the budget vetoes last week by Evers, the current projected surplus for the next budget is about $4 billion.

“There’s still a massive amount of money that the state has in reserve,” said Jason Stein, research director at the Wisconsin Policy Forum.

Neither side planned it that way, exactly.

The budget Evers presented to lawmakers in February would have spent more of the surplus on education, broadband, child care, paid family leave and a range of other government programs. That budget would have ended with gross balance of about $634 million.

The budget Republicans passed in June would have spent more of the surplus on a $3.5 Billion income tax cut. That budget would have left a similar balance of about $588 million.

In the end, Republicans gave Evers less than half of what he wanted for public schools and zeroed out other programs altogether. And Evers used his partial veto to reject a GOP income tax cut for the state’s top two brackets.

The end result leaves lawmakers and the governor with some of the same choices they faced when the budget debate began earlier this year. The trick is, they still have to agree.

In his veto message to lawmakers, Evers suggested that by eliminating the bulk of the GOP tax cut, he had preserved enough funding for a budget do-over.

That is never going to happen,” said Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, during an appearance last week on WISN-AM. “We’re not going to all of a sudden decide to spend the money.”

Vos indicated that Republicans would try to override Evers’ vetoes, a move he acknowledged was unlikely to succeed in the Assembly where the GOP is just short of a two-thirds supermajority. He also told conservative talk radio host Jay Weber that Republicans would send Evers standalone bills to cut taxes even if they’re destined for more vetoes.

“I think that’s exactly what we’re going to do,” Vos said.

Legislative Republicans Preparing to Sue over Evers’ School Funding Veto

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos says Republicans are preparing to sue over Gov. Tony Evers’ partial veto that increases public school funding for 402 years, saying he sees “very little option left but to go to the courts.”

“When you say he has the broad authority, that is clearly in question,” Vos said on WISN’s “UpFront. “We do not know that. He has taken the broad authority, but it doesn’t mean that it’s right.”

Vos said Republicans will also consider introducing a proposed constitutional amendment to further limit the partial veto powers of Wisconsin’s governor.

“I never thought it was necessary, frankly,” Vos said, referring to a constitutional amendment that would require passage from two consecutive sessions of the Legislature before going to voters. “This is something that is unprecedented. Gov. Evers has taken this to a new level. Talking about how the Legislature is undemocratic, well, having one person using a creative veto that is clearly in question — we won’t know until the court says whether it’s constitutional — but it’s clearly questionable.”

Evers’ education veto was one of 51 partial vetoes he issued. He increased the amount public school districts can raise by $325 per student each year through 2425 by striking a dash and “20” from the original 2024-25 language.

In doing so, Vos accused Evers of lying to Republican leaders during private negotiations surrounding the shared revenue agreement and education funding, a claim Evers called “breathtaking” Friday in response to Vos’ “UpFront” interview, telling WISC-TV, “I never lied.”

 

Biden Administration Reverses Trump-era Expansion of Short-Term Health Plans

HHS, the Treasury Department and the Department of Labor issued proposed rules on Friday that clamp down on short-term limited duration health plans. If finalized, short-term health plans would last for three months and can only be renewed for one more month.

The Trump-era rule enabled these types of plans to last up to a year and be renewed for up to three years.

Short-term plans do not have to meet the same requirements as a health insurance plan sold on the Obamacare insurance exchanges. These requirements can include coverage of pre-existing conditions and certain essential health benefits such as prescription drugs.

Consumers currently enrolled in short-term plans will be grandfathered in under the old rules, according to a senior administration official granted anonymity to discuss the details of the Biden plan.

The rule does not limit the sale of short-term plans during Obamacare’s open enrollment.

Governor Evers Signs State Budget into Law

Gov. Tony Evers has signed a Republican-drafted state budget that includes income tax cuts for most residents and a major increase in funding for K-12 education, more state aid to local governments and workforce housing.

During a packed budget signing ceremony, Evers applauded investments for K-12 schools, transportation, broadband, workforce housing and PFAS contamination.  Schools will get an additional $325 per student in each of the next two fiscal years under the budget approved by Republicans. In a surprise move, Evers used his line-item veto to continue the annual increase for over the next 400 years.

Last week, the Republican-controlled Senate and Assembly approved their own budget, which aimed to cut income taxes by $3.5 billion across all brackets, including the state’s wealthiest residents.  Governor Evers vetoed the proposed cuts for the state’s top two income tax brackets while preserving the cuts to the bottom.

“Using my broad veto authority, I’m doing what I can to ensure that tax relief goes to working families who need help affording rising costs, not the wealthiest taxpayers in Wisconsin,” Evers said.

In a tweet Wednesday, State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, said he was disappointed by Evers’ vetoes, specifically as they relate to tax cuts, K-12 funding and DEI.

“Vetoing tax cuts on the top two brackets provides hardly any tax relief for truly middle-class families,” Vos said. “His decision also creates another economic disadvantage for Wisconsin, leaving our top bracket higher than most of our neighboring states, including Illinois.”

State Budget Includes $400 Million to Replace Major Bridge Connecting Superior and Duluth

An estimated $1.8 billion plan to replace a major bridge connecting Superior and Duluth will receive a $400 million boost under Wisconsin’s next two-year state budget.

This December will mark 62 years since the bridge first opened, and it needs to be replaced due to its deteriorating condition. It has been under load restrictions due to age, rust and corrosion on its primary trusses. The bridge also poses a safety risk because its crash rates are 7 to 10 times higher than the statewide averages in Wisconsin and Minnesota respectively.

The Wisconsin and Minnesota Departments of Transportation are still weighing two options for the project. One alignment would reconstruct the bridge along its existing route, and the other would run slightly westward across the St. Louis River that separates Duluth and Superior. Transportation officials will gather public input on a preferred alternative sometime this fall.

Transportation officials now hope to begin construction in 2027, but it could begin in 2026 if funding becomes available. Wisconsin and Minnesota sought $889.5 million in federal funding under the bipartisan infrastructure law to help pay for the project, but it wasn’t funded in the first round of grants. However, the states are continuing to seek financial support through the Bridge Investment Program, according to Wisconsin Transportation Secretary Craig Thompson.

Thompson said the bridge carries billions of dollars worth of goods from 42 states and nine Canadian provinces that support more than 8,200 jobs in the region.